Census Data

By: Lena Masri and Mia Garchitorena

Money is likely to play a big role in the 2016 presidential election.

This month The Supreme Court lifted restrictions on election spending, removing a decades-old cap on the total amount any individual can contribute to federal candidates in a two-year election cycle.

In 2012, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, who were the two major party candidates for president spent close to $1.12 billion — not counting the millions more spent by the parties and outside groups, according to OpenSecrets.org. Overall, the presidential race cost more than $2.6 billion in that cycle. But next year’s election is expected to be even more expensive. Hillary Clinton, the U.S.’s first female presidential candidate, raised over $9 million in contributor funds in 2014 and has set a $2.5 billion fundraising goal for 2016. 

So who are the donors so far?

We want to create a chart that shows all the 62 groups that are so far known to be associated with potential 2016 presidential candidates.

Here is a link to the data: https://www.opensecrets.org/pres16/outsidegroups.php

We would also like to make charts that show how much money was spent back in 2012 just to give an idea of how much money can be spent on the 2016 election now that even more money has been allowed to pour into politics. Here is a link to the data:

https://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/

http://www.fec.gov/data/DataCatalog.do

Potential sources:

Lawrence Lessig, the Roy L. Furman Professor of Law and Leadership at Harvard Law School, and director of the Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics at Harvard University.

Dr. Timothy Lukes, Professor of Political Science at Santa Clara University

Deborah Hellman, Professor of Law, University of Virginia

Dr. Thomas R Marshall, Professor at Political Science, University of Texas Arlington

Chris Arterton 
Professor of Political Management
Founding Dean of the Graduate School of Political Management, George Washington University

MEDIA CONTACTS: George Washington University

John Brandt
202-994-3199; johnbrandt@gwu.edu
Jill Sankey
202-994-6466; jpsankey@gwu.edu

by Andrea González-Ramírez and Desiree Mathurin

The first female head of state in the modern era not to inherit the title was Khertek Anchimaa-Toka. In April of 1940 she became president of the Tuvan People’s Republic, a former state of the Soviet Union now known as the Tyva Republic of the Russian Federation.

Today, 75 years later, a record of 22 countries around the world have had female presidents, prime ministers and heads of state.

The U.S. is not part of that list.

On April, Hillary Rodham Clinton announced her candidacy for the 2016 Democratic nomination for President of the United States.

We believe this is a good moment to reflect on the women before her that have blazed a path toward the White House and to look at what’s the chance of a woman taking the oath of office in the next couple of years.

This story would look at historical data of the relationship between women and politics in the United States, comparing it to other countries that have had female heads of state since a long time ago.  After all, the question that remains to be answered in the next 18 months is clear: is America ready for a female president?

Data:

We’re going to use:

•  This list and this one to create a explanatory timeline of women in politics through history— including female candidates for the vice-presidency and presidency.
• These results of polls on the general question of how Americans feel towards a woman being a presidential candidate.
• This resource to show women in leadership around the world and how it compares to the U.S.
• Other sources.

Possible sources:

1. Susan J. Carroll – professor of Political Science and Women’s and Gender Studies at Rutgers University and senior scholar at the Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP) of the Eagleton Institute of Politics.
2. Jill S. Greenlee – associate professor of Politics at Brandeis University who specializes in women and politics.
3. Jennifer Lawless – professor of at the Department of Government in the School of Public Affairs of American University and director of the Women and Politics Institute of said institution.

Damian Geminder and Michaela Ross

Nut graf/news hook: The 2016 presidential election is likely to be the first since 2004 where a black candidate is not on the ballot. The national dialogue on race relations has been intensifying in recent months as case after case of police brutality targeting black males has stoked massive protests, both peaceful and violent. Criminal justice reform is almost certain to become a major issue in the next election. But will this debate affect black voter turnout, and will these black votes matter?

We will ask political scientists at Baruch College if they feel the racial tension surrounding the criminal justice reform debates will stimulate black voter turnout, despite the lack of a major-party black candidate. We will also visualize the election data from four crucial states that swung from voting Republican in 2004 to voting Democratic in 2008 – leading to the election of our current president, Barack Obama – because of strong black voter turnout.

By examining the shift between these elections, we can see just how much black votes matter. In 2004, the Republican incumbent, George W. Bush, won the presidency with 11 percent of the black vote, to Democratic challenger John Kerry’s 88 percent. But in 2008, the election swung to the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, who won 95 percent of the black vote and the presidency. Blacks made up 11 percent of the 2004 electorate and increased their share to 13 percent in 2008.

We plan to show black voter trends over the last few elections using a line graph, with a particular focus on the four swing states Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia. We will also present a state map showing how black votes correlate with Democratic support county-by-county.

The Data:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls

http://uselectionatlas.org/

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/exit-polls.html

Specialists we have contacted:
The following are Baruch College professors:
http://www.baruch.cuny.edu/pressroom/sme/politics.htm

Micheline Blum: Director of Baruch College Survey Research (BCSR). Before founding her own firm, Blum was manager of Polling & Election Operations at NBC News for 11 years. She is President-Elect of the New York Chapter of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) and teaches survey research at Baruch. She has also served on the national AAPOR Council and is an elected member of the Market Research Council.

Doug Muzzio: Professor of Political Science. He has taught courses in U.S. urban politics and government, leadership and strategy, campaigns and elections, and public opinion and public policy.

David Birdsell: Dean of the Baruch College School of Public Affairs. He serves on the New York City Broadband Advisory Committee and on the boards of the VCG Governance Matters and the New York Census Research Data Center. He is a member of the National Association of Schools of Public Affairs and Administration’s Executive Council.

Their press relations contacts are:
Manny Romero, 646-660-6141, Manuel.Romero@baruch.cuny.edu

Mercedes Sanchez, 646-660-6112, Mercedes.sanchez@baruch.cuny.edu

The big donors to political candidates have largely consisted of men, however, in the past couple presidential elections the role of women donors has grown. They are now donating almost as much as men. There are still more large donations from men (more than $5,000), but there are more women donating smaller amounts, especially for the democrats in the 2008 and 2012 elections. We will show the change in women donors in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and predict the role women’s donations will play in the 2016 election. Considering Hillary draws a lot of the female vote, she may also draw money from these female donors. Bernie Sanders, the most recent 2016 candidate, also drew one of the highest percentages of female donors in his 2012 Senate bid.

Data:
2012 Election
2008 Election

Human sources:
Andrew Polski, American politics Hunter College prof, apolski@hunter.cuny.edu
Charles Tien, women in politics Hunter College prof, ctien@hunter.cuny.edu
Corey Robin, modern political/economic thought CUNY Grad Center prof, corey.robin@gmail.com
Donna Hoffman, University of Northern Iowa, 319-273-5916, donna.hoffman@uni.edu